AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures closed the day fractionally on either side of UNCH. The Senate Monday afternoon passed a short terms spending bill, ending the three day government shutdown. This morning's USDA Export Inspections report, not affected by the government shutdown, showed improved shipments of 668,948 MT for the week that ended 1/18. That was 13.62% above the previous week but still 32.18 % slower than this week in 2017. Exports so far in the 17/18 MY are now 36.01% behind last year at 12.689 MMT. Total export commitments for corn are 59% of the USDA full year projection, after Friday's Export Sales report. Last year at this time showed 68% of the USDA projection met, with the average at 61% for this date.

Mar 18 Corn closed at $3.52, down 1/2 cent,

May 18 Corn closed at $3.60 1/2, down 1/4 cent,

Jul 18 Corn closed at $3.69, unch,

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.76 3/4, up 1/4 cent

Soybeans

Soybean futures finished the Monday session with most contracts 4 to 7 1/2 cents higher. Meal futures were up $7/ton, with nearby soy oil down 12 points. Soybean export inspections for the week that ended January 18 were tallied at 1.419 MMT by the USDA. That was 14.07% above last week and 9.54% above this week last year. A correction was made to last week’s NOPA crush report earlier today, showing December crush slightly lower than previously reported at 166.305 mbu. Commitments of soybean exports are now at 73% of the newly updated USDA projection, compared to last year's 85% and the average of 87%. Rains expected over the next week in the central part of Brazil are seen as slowing the start of harvest.

Mar 18 Soybeans closed at $9.84 1/4, up 7 cents,

May 18 Soybeans closed at $9.95 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents,

Jul 18 Soybeans closed at $10.05 3/4, up 7 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $10.03, up 5 3/4 cents,

Mar 18 Soybean Meal closed at $338.60, up $7.00,

Mar 18 Soybean Oil closed at $32.16, down $0.12

Wheat

Wheat futures were 3 to 4 cents higher in most CBT contracts, with KC 1 to 2 cents higher today. MPLS was steady to 1 1/2 cents lower in most contracts. The USDA Export Inspections report indicated 337,980 MT in wheat exports for the week of January 18. That was an increase of 16.96% from the same week in 2017 but lagged last week by 8.60%. During the 17/18 MY, 15.475 MMT of wheat has been inspected for export, 6.08% behind last year. All wheat export commitments are 75% of the full year export projection by the USDA. The average for this time of year is 81%, with last year running 82%.

Mar 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $4.25 3/4, up 3 cents,

Mar 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $4.28 1/2, up 1 cent,

Mar 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $6.07, down 1 1/2 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures settled with most contracts 35 cents to $1.65 higher. Feeder cattle futures were mostly higher, with soon to expire nearby Jan down a nickel. The CME feeder cattle index on January 18 was at $148.01, up $1.54 from the previous day. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Monday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 21 cents at $205.07 with Select boxes 64 cents lower at $199.52. Estimated FI cattle slaughter was at 88,000 head on Monday, hurt by blizzard like conditions in NE. That is down 30,000 from last week and 25,000 from the same week last year. Initial trade ideas for Friday’s COF report have the Jan 1 On Feed number at 107.2-109.0% of last year.

Feb 18 Cattle closed at $123.550, up $1.650,

Apr 18 Cattle closed at $123.975, up $1.250,

Jun 18 Cattle closed at $115.550, up $0.825,

Jan 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $147.900, down $0.050

Mar 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $145.825, up $0.225

Apr 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $146.475, up $0.400

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures ended the day with most contracts 5 to 37.5 cents lower. The CME Lean Hog Index was up 12 cents on January 18 at $73.67. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was 73 cents higher at $82.17 in the Monday afternoon report. The butt and rib primals were the only reported lower. The national base hog weighted average price was up 44 cents to $69.67. The USDA estimated FI hog slaughter at 405,000 on Monday, which is 12,000 larger than last week, but 35,000 head lower than this week last year.

Feb 18 Hogs closed at $71.800, down $0.275,

Apr 18 Hogs closed at $75.125, down $0.375

May 18 Hogs closed at $79.650, down $0.275

Cotton

Cotton futures were fairly quiet on Monday, as most contracts were within 5 points of UNCH. Upland cotton export commitments are 82% of the USDA projection, with unshipped sales still a majority of that number. Friday’s Cotton classing report showed that 598,507 bales of upland cotton were classed for the week that ended January 18. That brings the total for the marketing year to 16.889 million bales. The Cotlook A Index for January 19 was up 50 points from the previous day at 93.35 cents/lb.

Mar 18 Cotton closed at 83.410, down 1 point,

May 18 Cotton closed at 83.780, down 1 point

Jul 18 Cotton closed at 84.190, down 4 points


Market Commentary provided by:

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