AgriCharts Market Commentary

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Corn

Corn futures ended the day steady to a penny lower in most contracts. Losses were limited by an export sale announcement this morning. The USDA reported a private export sale of 114,572 MT of corn split between 17/18 (55,000 MT) and 18/19 (59,572 MT) to unknown destinations. Weekly EIA data showed that ethanol production slowed 28,000 barrels per day in the week of 8/10 to 1.072 million bpd. It has been the highest since December in the previous week. Stocks of ethanol were reported at 23.017 million barrels, up 94,000 barrels from the previous week and the largest stockpile since mid-March. Old crop corn export sales in the week of 8/9 are expected to be 300,000-600,000 MT, with new crop estimated at 0.3-1 MMT. Celeres estimates that corn production in Brazil will total 104.1 MMT in 18/19 on increased acreage from larger second crop following soybeans. Argentina acreage is seen at 14.33 million acres for 18/19, up nearly 7.4% from last year.

Sep 18 Corn closed at $3.61 1/2, down 3/4 cent,

Dec 18 Corn closed at $3.76, down 1/2 cent,

Mar 19 Corn closed at $3.87 3/4, down 1/4 cent

May 19 Corn closed at $3.94 3/4, unch

Soybeans

Soybean futures closed with the front months 8 to 11 cents in the red on Wednesday. Rain in the Corn Belt got much of the blame. Nearby soy meal was down $6.30/ton, with soy oil 40 points lower. This morning’s NOPA report showed members crushed the second largest total ever during July (lagging only March 2018) at 167.733 mbu. That was well above the average trade guess of 161.745 mbu. It was a 5.34% jump from June and up 15.9% from July 2017. Fat board crush margins and record large 4th quarter soybean stocks made it feasible. July 31 soy oil stocks were slightly lower than June at 1.764 billion pounds. Trade estimates are running anywhere from 100,000-400,000 MT for old crop export sales and 300,000-700,000 MT for new crop sales ahead of Thursday’s weekly FAS report. Brazil consultant Celeres estimates that the country’s soybean acreage will grow by 3.1% in 18/19 to 89.45 million acres. They also expect the country to produce 119.6 MMT of soybeans. China sold 127,270 MT of 2013 soybeans from state reserves on Wednesday, totaling 42.12% of the amount offered.

Sep 18 Soybeans closed at $8.57 1/2, down 10 3/4 cents,

Nov 18 Soybeans closed at $8.69, down 10 3/4 cents,

Jan 19 Soybeans closed at $8.81, down 10 3/4 cents,

May 19 Soybeans closed at $9.04, down 8 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 Soybean Meal closed at $329.50, down $6.30,

Sep 18 Soybean Oil closed at $27.88, down $0.40

Wheat

Wheat futures ended the Wednesday session with most contracts 9 to 13 cents lower, with MPLS the weakest. Rains over the last 24-hours are helping to build up soil moisture ahead of winter wheat planting. The weekly USDA Export Sales report will be released on Thursday morning at 7:30 a.m. CDT. Analysts’ estimates are running 200,000-500,000 MT for 18/19 all wheat export sales in the week that ended on August 9. US SRW FOB prices are now below Russia, though they do benefit from cheaper freight prices into the eastern Mediterranean.

Sep 18 CBOT Wheat closed at $5.32 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 KCBT Wheat closed at $5.35 1/4, down 10 1/2 cents,

Sep 18 MGEX Wheat closed at $5.83 1/2, down 12 3/4 cents

Cattle

Live cattle futures saw 20 to 40 cent gains in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were up 12.5 to 87.5 cents. The CME feeder cattle index was down 30 cents from the previous day on 8/13, at $150.34. Wholesale boxed beef values were mixed on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 31 cents at $209.95, while Select boxes were 66 cents lower at $200.61. USDA FI cattle slaughter was estimated at 354,000 head through Wednesday. That is down 3,000 head from the previous week and 7,000 head above the same week in 2017. Wednesday’s FCE saw no sales on the 488 head offered, with lots offered at $110 and no bids reported. Bids of $108 were shown out in the country on Wednesday with no takers.

Aug 18 Cattle closed at $108.325, up $0.350,

Oct 18 Cattle closed at $109.000, up $0.275,

Dec 18 Cattle closed at $112.800, up $0.375,

Aug 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.050, up $0.125

Sep 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.150, up $0.475

Oct 18 Feeder Cattle closed at $149.275, up $0.375

Lean Hogs

Lean hog futures were up 60 cents to $1.125 on the day. The CME Lean Hog Index was down $1.47 on August 13, to $56.81, as was anticipated by the expired August futures. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $1.25 from the previous day at $68.49 on Wednesday afternoon. The picnic was the only primal reported higher. The national base hog carcass value was down 55 cents in the Wednesday PM report, with the weighted average @ $42.23. USDA estimated weekly hog slaughter at 1.403 million head through Wednesday. That is up 93,000 head from last week as the plants are back online, and 57,000 head above the same week last year.

Oct 18 Hogs closed at $52.475, up $0.625,

Dec 18 Hogs closed at $49.450, up $0.800

Feb 19 Hogs closed at $56.350, up $1.125

Cotton

Cotton futures posted losses of 175 to 233 points in most contracts on Wednesday. Crude oil was down $2.13/barrel on the day. Friction with Turkey is also causing pressure. Weekly export sales will be updated tomorrow, with the first full week in the 18/19 MY being shown. Carry over from last year puts total export commitments already 38.7% larger than a year ago as of last week’s report, with 19/20 commitments at 1.328 million RB. The Cotlook A index was down another 250 points from the previous day at 92.75 cents/lb on August 14. The weekly AWP, currently at 79.67 cents/lb, will be updated on Thursday afternoon.

Oct 18 Cotton closed at 81.080, down 233 points,

Dec 18 Cotton closed at 80.740, down 230 points

Mar 19 Cotton closed at 81.040, down 210 points


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